預測市場:密碼貨幣牛市要來了?
在上月〈淺談機制設計:Show me the incentive〉,我解釋過「機制 = 行事準則 + 誘因」,不知大家有沒有察覺,預測市場正是典型的機制,參與者若正確預測特定議題,每參與份額可獲得 1 鎂(未扣除買入價),錯誤預測則失去全數投入的金額,結果確認前,參與者可用市價賣出參與份額,止賺或止蝕。
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